Objective

The objective of this research project is to develop a qualitative and quantitative systems analysis approach to assess the future of the energy system in Qatar and the Gulf countries, taking explicitly into account two major disruptive factors:

(i) the drive toward smart-cities (SC) and smart energy (SE) systems to achieve sustainability and,

(ii) the impact of post COP-21 climate regimes, distributed energy markets and sharing economy, on the global demand for fossil fuels.

Method

In this project a three-pronged systems analytic approach is adopted:

1) a qualitative multilevel perspective (MLP) approach is used to develop scenarios for Qatar and the Gulf countries concerning technological progress, new climate regimes, new market for distributed energy resources, global evolution of fossil energy market and consumer behaviours;

2) a bottom-up techno-economic modelling tool (ETEM-SG/SC) is proposed to capture the possible evolution of the domestic energy system integrating investment in electric transport, intermittent renewable energy sources, smart grids and other innovations, under low carbon constraints and new market paradigms;

3) a top-down macro-economic modelling tool (GEMINI-E3) is used to quantify the global macroeconomic impact of a post Paris-agreement climate regime aiming at net-zero emissions before the end of the century.